Here we are at American Thanksgiving, but where are we really at with the NHL standings?
That is a bigger question than usual at this annual benchmark, with only 9 points separating first from worst in the Eastern Conference when the schedule halted for the holiday. The Western Conference, by comparison, had a 21-point gap thanks to Colorado’s 10-game winning streak and a 9-point spread from the second wild card to last place.
Historically, 75 per cent of teams in playoff positions at American Thanksgiving go on to make the postseason — or 6 out of 8, allowing for two outliers per conference.
There are several candidates to buck that trend or exceed that average this season, including the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and fellow finalists, the Edmonton Oilers, who were both on the outside looking into the playoff picture as of Thursday.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see them back in the mix by April, but it’ll be an uphill battle with plenty of parity and a whole lot of uncertainty going forward.
Taking a look back on my preseason predictions, there are definitely some discrepancies in the current standings.
As somebody anticipating a third straight showdown between Florida and Edmonton, they have their work cut out for them over the final two-thirds of the regular season. The Panthers have obviously been missing their top two forwards, with Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk sidelined by injuries, while the Oilers are notoriously slow starters with subpar goaltending. A change could be imminent on that front to get Edmonton trending up again.
Unlike the Oilers, my surprise team in the Pacific, the Anaheim Ducks, have lived up to and honestly exceeded my expectations. I billed the Ducks as a young team ready to break out but I didn’t have them leading the division and that has been the case to date, though they won’t want to be without Lukas Dostal for long or they could start slipping. Seattle has been the other surprise there but I’m not convinced the Kraken can sustain their impressive start. Vegas was sitting second, just behind Anaheim, and the Golden Knights could overtake the Ducks once Adin Hill returns and Carter Hart debuts. Edmonton is in Seattle today, trying to get back within a point of third place with a regulation win.
I nailed the Central Division, in order, with Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota occupying the top three seeds. The Avs are even better than I envisioned, the Stars boast the league’s best power play, and the Wild are getting the league’s best goaltending from their Swedish tandem. Winnipeg could make a charge when Connor Hellebuyck gets back but might wind up as a wild card.
I had Washington, New Jersey and Carolina as the top three in the Metropolitan Division, which they were but in a different order with the Devils ahead of the Hurricanes and Capitals. They still look like the playoff locks from that division, with some of the also-rans trying to stay in that wild-card race the rest of the way.
I had Tampa Bay and Ottawa as the top two seeds in the Atlantic Division but didn’t see Boston in third place and can’t see the Bruins staying in that spot. Toronto is missing Mitch Marner more than they’d like to admit but I think Auston Matthews will gain enough momentum to get the Maple Leafs back into the top three there, followed by Florida and Montreal as wild-card contenders.
Right now, at American Thanksgiving and based on points percentage, the wild cards would belong to Pittsburgh and Montreal in the East with Los Angeles and Utah in the West.
My predictions had Florida and Montreal, Winnipeg and St. Louis as the wild cards. The Blues may be underachieving, they beat Ottawa to spoil Brady Tkachuk’s return yesterday, but I no longer have them in my playoff picture. I’m still confident Edmonton gets in, ahead of Winnipeg too, and I could see Utah or Seattle sticking around as a wild card now. I can’t see San Jose or Chicago getting in yet, but Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard are bona fide superstars ensuring the league’s bright future.
They both make the cut for my version of the Canadian Olympic team, along with Matthew Schaefer on defence as the frontrunner for the Calder Trophy. He has made the Islanders fun to watch again, as a teenage rookie, and the Battle of New York could impact the wild cards with the Rangers getting more traction lately after a dreadful start at home. The return of Vincent Trocheck has really sparked their offence and made the Rangers much deeper.
Like Boston, Pittsburgh appears to be overachieving out of the gate, but don’t tell that to Sidney Crosby. He is determined to keep the Penguins in the playoff mix and to avoid another round of trade rumours as the deadline approaches.
The East is wide open as of today. Win five straight, or even three in a row, and you’ll likely land in a playoff position, at least temporarily. Montreal has had their share of injuries again, so the Canadiens aren’t assured of a spot. I still like their chances when those second-half reinforcements return, with the likes of Patrik Laine, Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach and Kaiden Guhle. Florida kept the band together but the Panthers are still shaking off their hangover. Matthew Tkachuk should be back by the New Year and will no doubt drag them back into the playoff fight.
If we’re expecting history to repeat itself with up to four teams rallying to make the playoffs after American Thanksgiving, my money is still on Toronto and Florida in the East, at the expense of Boston and Pittsburgh, with Edmonton and Winnipeg in the West, replacing Seattle and Utah. Those aren’t exactly bold predictions, I know, but I’m largely sticking with my preseason playoff picture. The only change for me would be Los Angeles as the second wild card rather than St. Louis.
I’d love to see San Jose or Chicago or the Islanders or even the Sabres surge into the postseason on youthful exuberance and adrenaline but I’m expecting those veteran teams to ramp up their intensity and rely on their experience down the stretch when play resumes following the Olympic break.
When the going gets tough, the tough get going and that saying can certainly be applied to those teams. They know how to win under pressure. Connor McDavid won’t be denied a playoff berth, and with a new goaltender sooner than later, I still believe the Oilers can bring the Cup home to Canada in 2026. But that is a long way off and there is no denying that Nathan MacKinnon has Colorado looking like the team to beat in the present.
Florida will be a factor again when push comes to shove, with Crosby and Nazem Kadri as potential targets if Barkov won’t be back for the playoffs. I’m expecting Crosby to play on a line with MacKinnon and Brad Marchand at the Olympics, and I still think there is a chance he’ll be flanking one of them after the trade deadline with the Avs or the Panthers. If Montreal can make some noise leading up to the deadline, I wouldn’t rule out the Canadiens as a suitor for Crosby if the Penguins tail off and he decides to chase another Cup. I wouldn’t bet on him leaving Pittsburgh this season, but if he does, his new team becomes one of the Cup favourites as well.
For now, I’m sticking with the Oilers as my Cup prediction, but time will tell whether they can salvage their season again after being outside the playoff picture at American Thanksgiving for the third year in a row. Let’s see where Edmonton is at come the Olympic break. Stay tuned!
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